Techniques for sensitivity analysis of simulation models: A case study of the CO2 greenhouse effect

Environment;Simulation;environmental economics

Tools for Integrated Sustainability Assessment: a two-track approach

Sustainable development has become an overarching policy target for the global policy arena. However, the international policy-making process and that of the individual countries remains largely sectoral in nature: a wide spectrum of international policies pursue narrow sectoral concerns and do not contribute fully enough to the achievement of broader sustainability targets. New policy tools such as Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) have therefore been adopted by the European Union to ensure that sectoral policies can be evaluated in relation to their wider sustainability impacts. However, what is really needed is a cross-sectoral approach to assessing sustainable development at an even higher, much more strategic level: Integrated Sustainability Assessment (ISA). ISA involves a longterm, comprehensive assessment of international and national policy programmes against sustainability targets and criteria. In order to perform ISA at the international level, new assessment tools and methods are needed which are rooted in a new paradigm. Sustainable development is a complex, multi-dimensional phenomenon, with a breadth and depth that cannot be fully covered by the current portfolio of ISA tools. We therefore need a new generation of ISA tools, in particular modelling tools that can (semi-)quantitatively assess the multiple dimensions of sustainable development, in terms of multiple scales, multiple domains and multiple generations. Although a new paradigm is on the horizon and its contours are gradually becoming clearer, it will take a while before it can be used to develop practical ISA tools. Within the context of the European MATISSE project we therefore propose a two-track strategy: find new ways to use the current portfolio of ISA tools as efficiently and effectively as possible, while at the same time developing building blocks to support the next generation of ISA tools

Business Strategies for Transitions towards Sustainable Systems

This paper develops a strategic perspective for business to address persistent sustainability issues by contributing to the innovation of societal systems. Sustainability issues at the level of societal sectors or domains cannot be addressed by single organizations but require co-evolutionary changes in technology, economy, culture and organizational forms. We present the case of transition management in the Netherlands – an approach combining systems analysis with new modes of governance to influence the direction and speed of structural changes towards sustainability – and the activities of two firms working in this new context. From the two specific cases we conceptualize business strategies at different levels to advance sustainable development.transition management;sustainability;business development;systems

The SCENE Model: getting a grip on sustainable development in policy making

Abstract. Sustainable development is a politically and scientifically contested concept. This is partly due to its definition, which contains ambiguous, normative and subjective elements. In addition, sustainable development is a complex concept describing developments at different time-scales, geographical scales and across domains. In this article, we describe the ‘SoCial, ENvironmental and Economic (SCENE) model’, a conceptual approach towards sustainable development that explicitly addresses these characteristics. The model is based on the structural representation of economic, ecological and social stocks and the interaction between them. The possible applications of the SCENE model include integrated issue description, monitoring of sustainable development, evaluation of complex sustainability-related issues, strategy planning and a framework for quantitative modelling. In addition, the model provides a tool for the communication of these issues. The different applications are described on the basis of case studies. The common goal of all applications is a better understanding of the underlying dynamics of sustainable development and related issues

Conclusions: A Way Forward

Despite a general improvement expected for the next decade in EU, some urban areas and some regions will still struggle with severe air quality problems and related health effects. These areas are often characterized by specific environmental and anthropogenic factors and will require ad hoc additional local actions to complement medium and long-term national and EU-wide strategies to reach EU air quality objectives. These urban areas are also among the territories where most energy is consumed and most greenhouse gases (GHGs) are emitted

Research and practice of sustainability transitions in the Netherlands

This paper reports on the research outcomes and practical experiences with transitions and transition management in the Netherlands. Transitions are phenomena that receive increasing interest from researchers, policy-makers and the business community as an integrated paradigm for dealing with persistent unsustainability problems as well as with structuring activities aiming at radical breakthroughs towards sustainability. Within the Netherlands, the Dutch research network on System Innovations and Transitions (KSI) and the Dutch Research Institute for Transitions (DRIFT) have functioned as the core centres for research and practices in this area

Transities & transitiemanagement: Oorsprong, status en toekomst

Begin jaren negentig formeerde Jan Rotmans op het RIVM in Bilthoven de GLOBOonderzoeksgroep, die onderzoek deed naar mondiale verandering en duurzame ontwikkeling. Centraal in dit onderzoek stond het begrip transitie en de eerste serie transitie-experimenten werden gedaan met het TARGETS-model (Rotmans 1997). Ook bij de VN introduceerde Rotmans de notie van transities, bij de Commissie Duurzame Ontwikkeling, in wiens opdracht hij een evaluatie maakte van de UNCED-conferentie in Rio in 1992. Dit resulteerde in het rapport ‘Critical Trends’ (UN 1997), een mondiale, integrale trendanalyse waarin het begrip transitie de kern vormde

Transitions in a globalising world

The increasing complexity of our global society means that sustainable development cannot be addressed from a single perspective or scientific discipline. By using the concept of transitions, we examine current and future tensions between welfare, well-being and the environment, and focus on four major issues that are of global importance: two of our key natural resources, water and biodiversity; the health of human populations; and the developments related to global tourism. In our global assessment we base ourselves on the most recent scenario efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Future developments are explored along the lines of four development paths (scenario groups), defined along two dimensions (global versus regional dynamics and emphasising economic objectives versus environmental and equity objectives

The acceleration of transitions to urban sustainability: a case study of Brighton and Hove

Cities raise major challenges and opportunities for achieving sustainability. Much literature on urban sustainability focuses on specific aspects such as planning practices, urban policy or the diffusion of more sustainable technologies or practices. However, attempts at understanding the mechanisms of structural change towards sustainability have resulted in the emergence of an interdisciplinary field of sustainability transitions research. Transitions research has developed a phase model of transitions in which predevelopment, take-off, acceleration and stabilization phases are distinguished. However, the acceleration phase has received limited attention so far. This is a crucial gap as policy makers are keen to accelerate transitions. This paper aims to enhance our understanding of how local actions contribute towards accelerating urban sustainability transitions. It does so by testing an acceleration mechanisms framework through exploring the collective agency of local initiatives in urban sustainability transitions. Drawing on a case study of the city of Brighton & Hove (UK), the paper finds that despite favourable local political conditions, there is a lack of evidence of acceleration apart from in individual domains such as food or mobility. Progress is found to depend on the agency of initiatives to both scale up sustainable practices and embed these practices into local governance arrangements

Managing transitions for sustainable development

The challenge of sustainable development presents our society with the need for longterm, structural changes or transitions in sectors such as energy-supply, mobility, agriculture and health-care. Based on a multi-phase and multi-level framework for transitions, we ask whether managing transitions is possible and then outline an operational method for transition management